Search for: All records

Future sea-level rise poses an existential threat for many river deltas, yet quantifying the effect of sea-level changes on these coastal landforms remains a challenge. Sea-level changes have been slow compared to other coastal processes during the instrumental record, such that our knowledge comes primarily from models, experiments, and the geologic record. Here we review the current state of science on river delta response to sea-level change, including models and observations from the Holocene until 2300 CE. We report on improvements in the detection and modeling of past and future regional sea-level change, including a better understanding of the underlying processes and sources of uncertainty. We also see significant improvements in morphodynamic delta models. Still, substantial uncertainties remain, notably on present and future subsidence rates in and near deltas. Observations of delta submergence and land loss due to modern sea-level rise also remain elusive, posing major challenges to model validation. ▪ There are large differences in the initiation time and subsequent delta progradation during the Holocene, likely from different sea-level and sediment supply histories. ▪ Modern deltas are larger and will face faster sea-level rise than during their Holocene growth, making them susceptible to forced transgression. ▪ Regional sea-level projections have been much improved in the past decade and now also isolate dominant sources of uncertainty, such as the Antarctic ice sheet. ▪ Vertical land motion in deltas can be the dominant source of relative sea-level change and the dominant source of uncertainty; limited observations complicate projections. ▪ River deltas globally might lose 5% (∼35,000 km 2 ) of their surface area by 2100 and 50% by 2300 due to relative sea-level rise under a high-emission scenario. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 51 is May 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates. 

Tropical islands, including many in island arcs, are subjected to recurring disturbances from extreme storms such as tropical cyclones. To test whether such storms influence cosmogenic nuclide concentrations such that they do not reflect long‐term rates of erosion, we measured meteoric andin situ¹⁰Be in river sediment samples from Dominica, an andesitic island in the Caribbean, before and after category five Hurricane Maria (in 2017). Populations of before‐ and after‐storm concentrations are statistically indistinguishable (n = 7 pairs forin‐situ¹⁰Be,n = 11 pairs for meteoric¹⁰Be).¹⁰Be concentrations vary from −138% to +73% within before–after sample pairs relative to the mean of the pair. These new data suggest that the effects of extreme storms on the depth and amount of near‐surface erosion on Dominica vary spatially. Our data support the calculations of Niemi et al. (2005) and Yanites et al. (2009) suggesting that basin‐by‐basin comparisons of erosion rates based on cosmogenic nuclides should be approached with caution in small (<~100 km²) watersheds affected by mass movements and extreme storms. Erosion rates determined fromin‐situ¹⁰Be on Dominica (geometric mean = 0.102 mm y⁻¹,n = 12) are low compared to similarly steep and wet areas globally and correlate positively with the spatial density of mass movements.